Probabilistic Cost Forecasting Built on Validated Drilling Intelligence
EIM combines structured offset research with validated EDR data to generate probabilistic AFE and performance forecasts. Historical drilling outcomes, real-time operational data, and normalized offset sets are converted into predictive cost and performance curves before spud.
No static AFE spreadsheets. No single-point estimates. Statistical confidence ranges tied to real area performance.
Offset-Driven Probabilistic Forecasting
EIM uses standardized offset sets and validated EDR data to calculate probabilistic performance benchmarks for comparable wells.
Forecasting is based on actual regional execution data - not assumptions. These curves represent probability-based drilling outcomes for time, cost, and efficiency.
Dynamic AFE Modeling
AFE projections are generated from probabilistic drilling performance models tied to validated offset data. Companies select their risk posture - and forecasts align with selected strategy.
Performance-Driven
Target-based execution. Aggressive efficiency goals aligned to top-half performance data.
- Lowest cost target
- Performance-aligned
- Efficiency-driven planning
Controlled
Balanced risk posture. Realistic forecasting with built-in operational contingency.
- Balanced cost target
- Managed risk position
- Operational contingency
Conservative
High-confidence cost ceiling. Maximum budget protection with widest statistical margin.
- Highest cost estimate
- Lowest risk exposure
- Budget protection focus
AFE becomes a statistical decision framework - not a static estimate.
Drilling Curve Benchmarking
Predictive curves are rendered directly on drilling performance visualizations. Operators immediately see whether execution aligns with selected probabilistic targets.
- Compare actual meters/day vs selected curve
- Identify underperformance early
- Detect performance drift during execution
- Adjust operational strategy in real time
Performance tracking becomes probability-aligned, not reactive.
Competency & Execution Alignment
Probabilistic curves extend beyond cost forecasting. EIM uses selected performance benchmarks (P90 / P75 / P50) to evaluate team execution and operational discipline.
- Crew and project benchmarking
- Alignment with company-selected performance standard
- Competency tracking against statistical targets
- Standardized evaluation framework
Execution is measured against defined probability strategy.
Thriftive Cost Intelligence Engine
Predictive cost modeling is continuously refined using structured EDR inputs and validated offset research datasets. Forecasts improve as more wells are executed.
Execute
Drill with probabilistic targets guiding operational decisions.
Validate
Structured DQA confirms data integrity post-execution.
Recalibrate
Updated outcomes refine statistical models automatically.
Improve Forecast
Each well strengthens predictive accuracy across the program.
Cost prediction becomes a controlled system, not a static estimate.
Activate Predictive AFE Intelligence
Define your risk profile. Model your probabilistic outcome. Track execution against statistical targets.
Book a Predictive AFE Walkthrough